Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Most of the planet\u27s diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO 2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests

Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO2 fertilization-induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large-scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change

Individual-Based Modeling of Amazon Forests Suggests That Climate Controls Productivity While Traits Control Demography

Climate, species composition, and soils are thought to control carbon cycling and forest structure in Amazonian forests. Here, we add a demographics scheme (tree recruitment, growth, and mortality) to a recently developed non-demographic model—the Trait-based Forest Simulator (TFS)—to explore the roles of climate and plant traits in controlling forest productivity and structure. We compared two sites with differing climates (seasonal vs. aseasonal precipitation) and plant traits. Through an initial validation simulation, we assessed whether the model converges on observed forest properties (productivity, demographic and structural variables) using datasets of functional traits, structure, and climate to model the carbon cycle at the two sites. In a second set of simulations, we tested the relative importance of climate and plant traits for forest properties within the TFS framework using the climate from the two sites with hypothetical trait distributions representing two axes of functional variation (“fast” vs. “slow” leaf traits, and high vs. low wood density). The adapted model with demographics reproduced observed variation in gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary production, and respiration. However, NPP and respiration at the level of plant organs (leaf, stem, and root) were poorly simulated. Mortality and recruitment rates were underestimated. The equilibrium forest structure differed from observations of stem numbers suggesting either that the forests are not currently at equilibrium or that mechanisms are missing from the model. Findings from the second set of simulations demonstrated that differences in productivity were driven by climate, rather than plant traits. Contrary to expectation, varying leaf traits had no influence on GPP. Drivers of simulated forest structure were complex, with a key role for wood density mediated by its link to tree mortality. Modeled mortality and recruitment rates were linked to plant traits alone, drought-related mortality was not accounted for. In future, model development should focus on improving allocation, mortality, organ respiration, simulation of understory trees and adding hydraulic traits. This type of model that incorporates diverse tree strategies, detailed forest structure and realistic physiology is necessary if we are to be able to simulate tropical forest responses to global change scenarios

Size and frequency of natural forest disturbances and Amazon carbon balance

Forest inventory studies in the Amazon indicate a large terrestrial carbon sink. However, field plots may fail to represent forest mortality processes at landscape-scales of tropical forests. Here we characterize the frequency distribution of disturbance events in natural forests from 0.01 ha to 2,651 ha size throughout Amazonia using a novel combination of forest inventory, airborne lidar and satellite remote sensing data. We find that small-scale mortality events are responsible for aboveground biomass losses of B1.28 Pg C y 1 over the entire Amazon region. We also find that intermediate-scale disturbances account for losses of B0.01 Pg C y 1 , and that the largest-scale disturbances as a result of blow-downs only account for losses of B0.003 Pg C y 1 . Simulation of growth and mortality indicates that even when all carbon losses from intermediate and large-scale disturbances are considered, these are outweighed by the net biomass accumulation by tree growth, supporting the inference of an Amazon carbon sink

Necromass in forests of Madre de Dios, Peru: a comparison between terra firme and lowland forests

La cantidad de madera muerta o necromasa representa una importante porción de la biomasa y de los nutrientes en los bosques tropicales. Los objetivos de este estudio son: 1) hacer una evaluación y comparación entre la necromasa de los bosques de altura o tierra firme y los bosques inundables o bajíos, (2) estudiar las relaciones entre la necromasa, la biomasa aérea y la densidad de madera del bosque, y (3) proporcionar una primera estimación de la necromasa para todo el departamento de Madre de Dios. La necromasa gruesa y la masa aérea vegetativa fueron estudiados en tres diferentes lugares utilizando parcelas permanentes y líneas de intersección. El promedio del volumen de madera muerta gruesa fue de 72,9 m3 ha-1, con un peso entre 24,8 y 30,7 Mg ha-1 dependiendo de la densidad de madera muerta usada en los cálculos. Los bosques de tierra firme contienen significativamente más madera muerta que los bosques inundables. La necromasa constituye 11% de la masa aérea vegetativa almacenada en los bosques de Madre de Dios. Finalmente, se estima que el departamento de Madre de Dios contiene alrededor de 100 mega toneladas de carbono en su madera muerta. Este valor es bastante alto, siendo diez veces más que la emisión anual de combustibles fósiles de Perú entre 2000 – 2008. Esta substancial porción de la necromasa enfatiza la importancia de estos tipos de estudios de campo, considerando que este componente de carbono en el bosque tropical no se logra detectar con otros métodos como la detección remota por satélites.Stocks of dead wood or necromass represent an important portion of biomass and nutrients in tropical forests. The objectives of this study were: 1) to evaluate and compare the necromass of “terra firme” and lowlands forests, (2) to study the relationship between necromass, above-ground biomass and wood density, and (3) to estimate the necromass of the department of Madre de Dios, Peru. Stocks of necromass and above-ground biomass were estimated at three different locations using permanent plots and line intercept transects. The average volume of necromass for the three sites was 72.9 m3 ha-1 with an average weight varying between 24.8 and 30.7 Mg ha-1, depending on the estimations of dead wood density used for the calculations. Terra firme forests had significantly higher stocks of necromass than lowland forests. The amount of necromass was 11% of the total above-ground biomass in Madre de Dios forests. The total stock of carbon stored in dead wood for the entire department of Madre de Dios was estimated to be approximately 100 mega tonnes of carbon. This is ten times more than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Peru between 2000 and 2008. The substantial stocks of necromass emphasize the importance of these types of field studies, considering that this component of tropical forest carbon cannot be detected using other methods such as satellite remote sensing

The Changing Amazon Hydrological Cycle—Inferences From Over 200 Years of Tree‐Ring Oxygen Isotope Data

Changes to the Amazon hydrological cycle have important consequences for world's largest tropical forest, and the biodiversity it contains. However, a scarcity of long-term climate data in the region makes it hard to contextualize recent observed changes in Amazon hydrology. Here, we explore to what extent tree-ring oxygen isotope (δ18OTR) chronologies can inform us about hydrological changes in the Amazon over the past two centuries. Two δ18OTR records from northern Bolivia and the Ecuadorian Andes are presented. The Ecuador record spans 1799–2012 (n = 16 trees) and the Bolivia record spans 1860–2014 (n = 32 trees), making them the longest δ18OTR records from the Amazon, and among the most highly-replicated δ18OTR records from the tropics to date. The two chronologies correlate well at interannual and decadal timescales, despite coming from sites more than 1,500 km apart. Both δ18OTR records are strongly related to interannual variation in Amazon River discharge measured at Óbidos, and accumulated upwind precipitation, suggesting a common climatic driver. In both records a strong increase in δ18OTR was observed up until approximately 1950, consistent with positive trends in the few other existing δ18O proxy records from across the Amazon. Considering all possible drivers of this long-term increase, a reduction in rainout fraction over the basin driven by rising sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic is suggested as the most likely cause. The upward trend in δ18OTR reverses over the past 1–2 decades, consistent with the observed strengthening of the Amazon hydrological cycle since approximately 1990

Attaining the canopy in dry and moist tropical forests: strong differences in tree growth trajectories reflect variation in growing conditions

Availability of light and water differs between tropical moist and dry forests, with typically higher understorey light levels and lower water availability in the latter. Therefore, growth trajectories of juvenile trees—those that have not attained the canopy—are likely governed by temporal fluctuations in light availability in moist forests (suppressions and releases), and by spatial heterogeneity in water availability in dry forests. In this study, we compared juvenile growth trajectories of Cedrela odorata in a dry (Mexico) and a moist forest (Bolivia) using tree rings. We tested the following specific hypotheses: (1) moist forest juveniles show more and longer suppressions, and more and stronger releases; (2) moist forest juveniles exhibit wider variation in canopy accession pattern, i.e. the typical growth trajectory to the canopy; (3) growth variation among dry forest juveniles persists over longer time due to spatial heterogeneity in water availability. As expected, the proportion of suppressed juveniles was higher in moist than in dry forest (72 vs. 17%). Moist forest suppressions also lasted longer (9 vs. 5 years). The proportion of juveniles that experienced releases in moist forest (76%) was higher than in dry forest (41%), and releases in moist forests were much stronger. Trees in the moist forest also had a wider variation in canopy accession patterns compared to the dry forest. Our results also showed that growth variation among juvenile trees persisted over substantially longer periods of time in dry forest (>64 years) compared to moist forest (12 years), most probably because of larger persistent spatial variation in water availability. Our results suggest that periodic increases in light availability are more important for attaining the canopy in moist forests, and that spatial heterogeneity in water availability governs long-term tree growth in dry forests

The carbon balance of South America: A review of the status, decadal trends and main determinants

Copyright © 2012 European Geosciences Union. This is the published version available at http://www.biogeosciences-discuss.net/9/627/2012/bgd-9-627-2012.htmlWe attempt to summarize the carbon budget of South America and relate it to its dominant controls: population and economic growth, changes in land use practices and a changing atmospheric environment and climate. Flux estimation methods which we consider sufficiently reliable are fossil fuel emission inventories, biometric analysis of old-growth rainforests, estimation of carbon release associated with deforestation based on remote sensing and inventories, and finally inventories of agricultural exports. Other routes to estimating land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes include atmospheric transport inverse modelling and vegetation model predictions but are hampered by the data paucity and the need for improved parameterisation. The available data we analyze suggest that South America was a net source to the atmosphere during the 1980s (∼0.3–0.4 Pg C yr−1) and close to neutral (∼0.1 Pg C yr−1) in the 1990s with carbon uptake in old-growth forests nearly compensating carbon losses due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation. Annual mean precipitation over tropical South America measured by Amazon River discharge has a long-term upward trend, although over the last decade, dry seasons have tended to be drier and longer (and thus wet seasons wetter), with the years 2005 and 2010 experiencing strong droughts. It is currently unclear what the effect of these climate changes on the old-growth forest carbon sink will be but first measurements suggest it may be weakened. Based on scaling of forest census data the net carbon balance of South America seems to have been an increased source roughly over the 2005–2010 period (a total of ∼1 Pg C of dead tree biomass released over several years) due to forest drought response. Finally, economic development of the tropical forest regions of the continent is advancing steadily with exports of agricultural products being an important driver and witnessing a strong upturn over the last decade